IDENTIFICATION OF FAILURE SCENARIO AND THE CONCEPTION OF MATHEMATICAL TOOLS IN NUMERIC RISK ASSESSMENT

Goran Jovanov, Nemanja Jovanov, Radovan Radovanović

Abstract


In the process industry, risk management is traditionally focused on considering the probability of specific events or accidents. In energy plants which represent the most important field of application, in 1970’s of tha last century, in the USA the structural approach for identification of failure scenario was introduced. Risk assesment represent the decision process related to whether the existing risks are within the range of accepatble risk and whether the exisiting procedures for risk control are adequate. The main reason why it is necessary to make risk assesment is the possibility for risk management, its decrease or elimination.Risk assesment should be as objective as possible, and to depend on scientific criteria. After having received the information on risk, it can be started with the application of effective methods for its decrease, by which the increased efficiency in risk assesment will be accomplished. Methodological course of risk assesment procedure represents the ground for proper estimation, i.e. for monitoring the situation of business system. The result of system’s condition at the application of certain models for risk assesment, depends exclusively on  properly made results within the methodological course of risk assesment. Based on further results, the ranking of numerical risk assesment is made, i.e. the risk (R) is ranked from acceptable (insignificantly low risk) of the rank R1  through extremely high risk of the rank R5, which does not allow for activity to either to start or to continue until the risk level is reduced. Also, the table containing the description of criteria for probability estimate is provided, as well as of criteria for the frequency of failure and risk ranking. The evaluation of risk assesment is accomplished by showing the matrix model. There are matrices with different number of levels, but the simplest model of risk matrix is 3x3 with 3 risk levels. Based on the matrix of risk estimate the range of risks for calsification and characterization of risk estimate is defined.


Keywords


Possibility, ranking, estimate, frequency criteria, failure criteria.

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References


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