GEOPOLITICAL RISK AND ASEAN-5 STOCK MARKET DYNAMICS: VOLATILITY, CORRELATION, AND PREDICTIVE TRANSMISSION

Mohamed Ayoub Bey

Abstract


This study examines how geopolitical risk affects the stock markets of the five founding members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore) from 2014 to 2025. Employing dynamic conditional correlation volatility models, causality tests, and structural break analyses, the research investigates market dynamics. Results indicate that negative shocks significantly amplify volatility, increasing it by up to 7.4 times in Thailand. Furthermore, the analysis shows moderate financial integration among the four emerging markets, with correlations ranging from 0.246 to 0.350. Singapore exhibits near-zero regional correlations, consistent with its role as an international financial hub, though the mechanisms underlying this pattern warrant further investigation. Evidence also suggests Malaysia displays notably heightened sensitivity to geopolitical risk predictions relative to its regional peers. Notably, no statistically significant structural breaks were detected during the eleven-year period, suggesting these markets absorbed disruptions without permanent regime shifts, subject to the inherent limitations of the structural break procedure employed. The paper recommends that portfolio managers, risk practitioners, and policymakers consider Singapore for within-region portfolio diversification, apply dedicated risk frameworks for Malaysia, and use full-sample estimates as a baseline for regulatory stress-testing across these economies.


Keywords


stock market volatility; financial markets; political risk; Southeast Asia; time series; econometrics; international financial integration;

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12709/mest.14.14.02.04

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