MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS AND GDP TRENDS IN THE WESTERN BALKANS: 2019–2024

Ljubomir Miljković, Milan Janković

Abstract


This paper examines macroeconomic dynamics and gross domestic product (GDP) trends in the Western Balkans over the period 2019–2024, with particular emphasis on the effects of the COVID-19 crisis and the subsequent phase of recovery. Using a comparative macroeconomic approach based on officially published data from international financial institutions, the study analyzes GDP growth rates, cross-country differences, and variation in the pace of recovery across the region. The results show a sharp contraction in 2020, especially in tourism-dependent economies, followed by a strong rebound in 2021 largely driven by base effects and fiscal support measures. However, during 2022–2024 growth moderated, reflecting inflationary pressures, energy price shocks, weaker external demand, and persistent structural restrictions. Despite certain signs of stabilization, significant heterogeneity remains, linked to differences in economic structure, institutional capacity, and exposure to global shocks. The findings deepen understanding of macroeconomic performance in the Western Balkans during periods of crisis and normalization, while offering policy-relevant insights for strengthening economic resilience, accelerating structural transformation, and supporting more sustainable long-term growth.

Keywords


Western Balkans; GDP growth; macroeconomic dynamics; economic recovery; regional economic analysis; COVID-19 impact ;

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12709/mest.14.14.02.21

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